Iran’s Subsidies Reform Program: Hopes and Fears

In a few weeks the Iranian government will probably launch a long waiting economic plan according which most of the subsidies that are paid by the Iranian government in all the sectors of the economy will be lifted. Instead the government has planned to redistribute the money that is generated along the way to two thirds of the Iranian population who have monthly income below $130 per month.

While by many observers, this is a vital step towards more stable and prosperous economy, it might be accompanied by a disaster for the Iranian economy and the Iranian people.

Here is the problem: Since last year, Iranian economy has entered a recession (rokud) era similar to other parts of the world. But for two reasons the recession in Iran was worse than many other places.

• First, the Iranian economy has already suffered from new waves of heavy sanctions started in 2005.
  
• Second, Ahmadinejad's poor policy towards importing goods and food has made many Iranian domestic producers finding themselves at the edge.
  

Now as it has been argued, the sudden price increases in different sectors of the economy will cause two things at the same time.

• First, it causes Iranian producers great deal of harm to catch up with higher costs which may cause reduction in the Iranian domestic production. This reduction will eventually contribute to the recession that Iran is already in.
  
• Second, the increase in the prices will cause huge inflation (tavarom) for at least a few months.
  

RECCESION and INFLATION
at the same time is one of the worst things that might happen to an economy. This is called STAGFLATION which you could read more about that here.

From last year's presidential campaign the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and also Dr. Ali Reza Beheshti, Mousavi's consultant who is now in prison, have warned the Iranian government that the reform in the subsidies' system (Hadafmand Kardane Yaraneha), will cause "Bread-Protest" (Shuresh Nan).

The reason that Bread-Protest might happen is not just because of the stagflation situation that the Iranian government might face. It is because the Iranian government has planned to redistribute the money that is generated by this program to some groups of people. This redistribution of cash money will reinforce the stagflation through higher inflation (tavorm).

In conclusion, a sudden increase in the prices is probably a very bad idea which may harm the Iranian people.

Iran's 22 Bahman (Feb 11 2010)_Vidoe

A nice video clip inviting Iranian people all around the world to participate in the anti-government demonstrations on 22 Bahman 1388 (February 11, 2010):

Neda Angel of Iran

For Neda Agha Solatan
By "33 Years" Music Band

Why Killing Prof. Alimohammadi, the Iranian Physicist?

On Tuesday January 12, 2010, University of Tehran’s Physic Professor, Dr. Masud Alimohammadi was killed in a bomb blast in front of his home in northern Tehran. There are several suspicious issues regarding his death that show the Iranian government as the responsible behind this terror.
First, without any delay, the Iranian officials insisted that he was killed by the Foreign Security agencies. Even the parliament speaker Ali Larjiani went further and announced that Iran was aware of possible attacks before hand.

Second, even though he was not a nuclear scientist, the Iranian official media and other officials such as Ali Larijani insisted that he was indeed a nuclear scientist and his death was a total loss for the country.

Third, Iranian oppositions websites have shown documents of Prof. Alimohammadi’s support for the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Also his students have publicly announced that he was not in support of the recent repression in Iran. But there were several interviews by the officials such Iran’s ministry of higher education deputy of research that the professor was “enghelabi” and “velai” meaning that he was in support of Ayatoallah Ali Khamenie the Supreme Leader.

Based on the lies that the Iranian officials have consistently said so far, the following theory explains why he was chosen to be killed. And why it is highly possible that the Iranian government is behind this terror:

1- The goal of the killing the professor was to terrorize the Iranian people. And to make a point that the current situation in Iran will be resulted with terrors such this incident if the Iranian people insist on their protests after the disputed election of June 12, 2009.
2- Why him? Because he was green or partly green. And because of that his blood was halal for them. It means that he was considered a “mohareb” for the Iranian government. Mohareb means the enemy of God.
3- 3- He was a Physicist, and they could argue that he was a nuclear Physicist. This way they could show his death as a total loss without losing any nuclear scientist.
His tragic death was a total loss for the University of Tehran and also for the Iranian people. But unfortunately, the way that the Iranian officials reacted to his death made the government as the suspect number one.

A Response from the Supreme Leader to Mousavi’s 5-Step Solution Proposal

One day after Iran's opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi's 5-step proposal to solve the current crisis in Iran, Iranian Student News Agency, published an interview with former political prisoner and a reformist activist Mohammd Atrianfar on January 3^rd, 2010. In this interview after reviewing the events following the disputed June 2009 election, he has proposed a 9-step solution. It seems that this is an indirect response from Iran's Supreme Leader to Mr. Mousavi's proposal because of the following reasons:

1. Mr. Atrianfar in prison and in the show trial in August 2009, refuted many of his beliefs about the election in particular and about the reformist movement in Iran in general. Many still believe that he has been forced to say those things in prison.
   
2. After his release two months ago, he was silent without even one interview.
   
3. In his today's interview he has used a particular tone and language very similar to Supreme Leader's way of speaking about the event after June disputed election. As two examples, he has mentioned two expressions of "knowing the enemy" and "the highest crime is to doubt about the election". These two expressions have been repeatedly used by the Supreme Leader before.
   
4. His proposal just asks the opposition leader to retreat, and it only accepts the government fault in Kahrizak prison. Therefore, there is nothing about the election, political prisoners, freedom of speech especially by the freedom press asked by Mr. Mousavi in his proposal
   

This interview besides harsh responses of the other conservatives in the government again Mr. Mousavi's proposal have made it clear that Iran's current crisis has passed the point of finding an ordinary political solution. The only solution that is left is to remove Ayatollah Ali Khamenie from his Supreme Leadership. He has shown nothing expect an extreme brutality towards opposition movement in Iran. And there is a fear that the crisis reaches an internal war by February 11^th, 2010, the 31^st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Mir Hossien Mousavi on his Nephew's Body

Is there any Political Solution for Iran’s Crisis?

On January 1^st, 2010, Iran's opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi issued his 17^th statement. In this new statement, while he is condemning the Iranian government for its brutal suppression of the peaceful rally on Ashura December 27, 2009, he has also proposed a 5-step road map to bring the deep and wide crisis to a solution.

Among Farsi language bloggers and websites, there is a general consensus that Mousavi's proposal is a step back in the demand of the opposition movement in having a new election. On the other hand, it seems that Mr. Mousavi has deliberately tried to leave some doors open for some moderate conservatives in the government to try to find some common grounds between the demands of the protesters and what the government can do to meet these demands.

Even though the bloody suppression of Ashura and the government's arrests after that day have led many observers to believe that there is no other solution except the replacing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie, still one should remember that this solution will probably costs lives of many Iranians.

For some softer solutions such the ones that Mousavi has proposed, it is important to note that there is very limited time left.

Iran will have its 31^st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb 11^th, 2010. And the new campaign has already started for another massive turn out by the protesters. Since the government has shown no tolerance for such gatherings, it is very likely that the turn out will end up with bloody confrontation between the security forces and people.

Among the countries who said something after the Ashura event in Iran, France and Russia have suggested attempts for a political solution for this crisis. If they are really serious about this matter, now it is time to use some leverages on the Iranian government before it is too late. United Nations and countries like Japan, China, Russia, Germany and France might still have some chances to send delegations to Tehran to prevent a disaster.

Iranian people and the Iranian government have never embarrassed a foreign intervene in Iran's internal matter. On the other hand, Iran has never been so close to an internal war or conflict like now.