Saturday, December 11, 2010
یادداشت محرم ۸۹ موسوی؛ نقشه راه جدید جنبش سبز
Sunday, November 14, 2010
A Green squeeze on Iran, by Ray Takeyh, Friday Nov 12, 2010 on Washington Post
As Washington assesses how to deal with Iran's nuclear challenge, it must widen its canvass and consider its approach to the slow, simmering political change unfolding there. Given the alienation of the population and the fragmentation of the elite, the regime will not be able to manage a succession crisis. For all his faults, Khamenei is the glue that keeps the Islamic Republic together. Should the elderly supreme leader pass from the scene, the system is too divided and lacks a sufficient social base to easily choose another successor. In the process of consolidating his power and ensuring the fraudulent election of his protégé, Khamenei has all but ensured that his republic will not survive him. All this suggests that a transactional relationship with Iran whereby carrots and sticks are traded for modest nuclear concessions is unwise.
History has shown that human rights do contribute to dramatic political transformations. The Helsinki Accord of 1975 invigorated the moribund opposition groups behind the Iron Curtain and ensured a smooth transition to a post-communist reality. More so than arms races and arms control treaties, those accords defied the skeptics and cynics by contributing to the collapse of the mighty Soviet empire. An emphasis on human rights today can not only buttress the viability of the Green Movement but also socialize an important segment of the security services, clerical estate and intelligentsia to the norms to which a state must adhere in order to become a member of global society. The successor generation of Iranian leaders would then be more sensitive to their obligations to citizens and the international community. By linking its diplomacy to human rights behavior, the United States could mitigate Iran's nuclear ambitions and pave the way for a peaceful transition from clerical autocracy to a more responsible and humane government.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
درد دلی با میرحسین موسوی
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
به مناسبت حمله مزدوران کودتاچیان به خانوادههای این شهیدان: بسیجی واقعی همت بود و باکری
هر چند همچو گل همه بر باد رفته اند/ هرگز گمان مدار كه از یاد رفته اند/ ... اینان نه آن گل اند كه گویی در این بهار/ از یاد رفته اند چو بر باد رفته اند/ اینان نه آهویند كه گویی دریغ و حیف/ در چنگ ظالمانه صیاد رفته اند/ جای دریغ نیست بر ایشان كه این گروه/ با عزم آهنین و دل شاد رفته اند/ « استاد » گفته بود كه با جان و دل به پیش/ اینان بنا به گفته استاد رفته اند/ سرباز آهنین نبرد نهایی اند/ پولاد زیست كرده و پولاد رفته اند/ در راه پی گذاری كاخ جهان نو/ بر جا ن
Thursday, September 16, 2010
احتمال آزادی ۲ تبعه دیگر آمریکایی همزمان با افزایش احتمال دستگیری رهبران جنبش سبز
Saturday, September 11, 2010
ترس شدیدرژیم ازبرگزاری نماز عیدفطر دردانشگاه تهران
Thursday, August 12, 2010
روز قدس، روز ملی نافرمانی سبز مدنی
Friday, July 23, 2010
میر حسین موسوی، نلسون ماندلای ایران
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
نامه رهنورد به لیلا و سارا توسلی : شاهد شهیدان و صدای آزادی انسان بوده اید
به گزارش کلمه،متن کامل نامه زهرا رهنورد به سارا و لیلا توسلی به این شرح است :
سارا و لیلای عزیز
شما را ،تازه نشناخته ام .شجاعت تان ،پاکی و خلوص تان ،حضور اجتماعی تان را ،ایمان و اخلاق تان را ،هیچ یک برای من ناشناس نیست .حق طلبی ،آزادی خواهی ،کرامت انسانی و عزت نفس تان ،نه! هیچ کدام برای من اطلاعات تازه ای را در باره شما مطرح نمی کند.شما را نه در جنبش سبز و نه درعاشورای خونین نشناخته ام
حتی ،شما را ،نه در دوستی های خانوادگی مان از سی و اندی سال پپیش ،که در جلسات قرآن و نهج البلاغه و تحلیل های سیاسی ،در خانه پدرتان و سایردوستان که همچون پروانه می چرخیدید و گاه با صدای ظریف و کودکانه ،سوره کوچکی را تلاوت می کردید و از حاضران با آب و چای و قند و شیرینی پذیرایی می کردید و قندانها را زودتر از همه از مجلس بیرون می بردید!و در گوشه ای مشغول چشیدن شیرینی قندها می شدید.نه حتی از آن زمان که در پرتو قرآن ،می بالیدید و اوج می گرفتید ، که شناخت من از شما به هزاران سال پیش می رسد.
سارا و لیلای مهربان ،شما را ،نه از آن وقت که به دانشگاه رفتید و جزو ممتازان دانشگاهی بودید ،شما را نه به واسطه مادرتان که دوست مهربان و فرهیخته همه ما بود ، شما را نه بواسطه دایی گرامی تان آقای دکتر ابراهیم یزدی ،که روزی روزگاری ،نماینده امام خمینی در امریکا بودند و شما را نه به واسطه پدر شجاع و مبتکرتان شجاع تان شناختم،مهندس توسلی را می گویم که به عنوان نخستین شهردار تهران پس از انقلاب که هنوز جای جای این شهر سرشار از یادگارهای خلاق و چاره ساز ایشان است و این سخن البته زحمات و ابتکارات شهرداران بعدی را نفی نمی کند.
و به قول ما اهالی هنر ،شما را نه از نمای دور ،بلکه از نمای نزدیک می شناسیم.
سارا و لیلای عزیز ،شما در سراسر ایران پرعظمت حضور دارید.هرلحظه نفس کشیدن ساراها و لیلاها ،شیواها ،ژیلاها ،مهساها ،شیرین عبادی ها ،مفیدی ها ،منصوری ها ،بهاره ها ، پرستوها ،سمیه ها ،نرگس ها ، محبوبه کرمی ها ، مهدیه گلروها ،عاطفه نبوی ها و هنگامه ها و دیگر زنان شجاع را ،هریک به شکلی و اندیشه ای و فریادی و اعتراضی و ابتکاری در شکوه ایران هزارساله می بینم ،در صبر و مقاومت زنانی که فرزند یا همسر را تقدیم راه حق کرده اند و در غیاب آنها که یا به شهادت رسیده اند یا اسیر زندانهای ستم هستند . سرفرازانه ،زندگی را به اوج می رسانند .
آری !من شما را تجربه کرده ام .کنار شما و با شما و با دغدغه های همیشگی ام برای سرفرازی و پایداری ایران و چه نگرانی شکوهمندی ،همه ما یکدیگر را می شناسیم .
سارا و لیلای مقاوم ،من ،شما را در ایلام باستان سراغ گرفته ام ،در هگمتانه و پارس و بیستون که عاشقانه زیسته اید ،در کتیبه هایی با خط زیبای میخی ،نام شما حک شده است ،در خطوط زیبای کوفی و نستعلیق ،در مسجدها ،حسینیه ها ،در طبیعت زیبای ایران ، قرائت شکوه دوران عظیم و تمدن این سرزمین ،بر پیشانی تابناک شما ،بارها و بارها تکرار و تجربه کرده ام و هربار ،تازه و تازه تر و پرطراوت تر ،آن را حفظ کرده ام.
کیست که نداند؟در جنبش ضد استعماری تنباکو ،در آزادی خواهی ها و قانون گرایی ها ی انقلاب مشروطه ،در ملی شدن فوران نفت ،در جنبش ملی و در استقلال ،آزادی و جمهوری اسلامی،انقلاب اسلامی ،شما چه حضور پر برکتی داشته اید و در جنبش سبز ،حضور بالنده تان شاهد شهیدان و صدای آزادی و کرامت انسان بوده است.
سارا و لیلای سرفراز،اگر بانوان ایران ،هزاران سال تاریخ و تمدن را در وجود خود چون کوله باری عظیم و پرانتظار ،حمل نکنند ،چه مغبون خواهند بود و خدا را شکر که چنین نیست و نمونه اش شما دو خواهر هستید.
من به ملت ایران ،به ویژه زنان شجاع ایران پیشنهاد می کنم که یک صدا به قدرت طلبان بگویید :آیا حق زنان ایرانی که پیوسته در دامن اخلاق و ایمان پرورش یافته اند ،حق ساراها و لیلاها ، شیواها و بهاره ها و مهدیه ها و ژیلاها و بدری ها و محبوبه ها زندان و مجازات و تهدید است یا تحبیب و تقدیر؟آیا شاخه زیتونی بر تارک ماه ،بهتر است یا تازیانه ای بر پیکر تاریخ پر عظمت ایران.
زهرا رهنورد -تهران
۳۰ تیرماه ۱۳۸۹
Saturday, July 17, 2010
برکناری احمدی نژاد ۴؟
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
برکناری احمدی نژاد۳؟
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
بر کناری احمدی نژاد۲؟
Friday, July 9, 2010
بر کناری احمدی نژاد؟
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
دیدار خاتمی و موسوی
Thursday, July 1, 2010
عقب نشینی حکومت کودتا در مورد دانشگاه آزاد
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Mir Hossien Mousavi, Please write to Obama
Friday, February 26, 2010
Target Iran's Censors by Roger Cohen Nytimes
As Mr. Cohen mentions in this article, an Open Internet Policy for Iran is the most effective solution for the new term.
Here is the article:
NEW YORK — Here’s what happens when a business linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) is targeted with sanctions. A representative of the Revolutionary Guards finds a lawyer in Dubai and says: “Look, I’m on this stupid U.S. Treasury list. I’ll give you 10 percent. Help me set up a shell company in Dubai or Malaysia.”
The Treasury Department enemy list (“Specially Designated Nationals”) is easy to find. It’s at www.ustreas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/sdn/.
Revolutionary Guard tycoons in Tehran know that. Once they have a new shell company, say in a cousin’s name, they circumvent the list. They go on reaping the heady profits open to the in crowd when sanctions distort an economy.
Iran has lived with sanctions for a long time; its immune systems are highly developed. As much as 20 percent of the gross national product of Dubai is linked to Iran trade. I don’t see new “targeted” sanctions disrupting this traffic. Iran’s economy, even in a slump, is too big, too diverse and too sophisticated: North Korea it is not.
Still, thanks to Iran’s erratic response to President Obama’s overtures and its ongoing nuclear nationalism (a more coherent political than weapons program), the United States finds itself in lockstep toward new sanctions.
I expect China, averse to conspicuous isolation, will eventually abstain on a new round of U.N. sanctions on Iran. They will be imposed. Stuart Levey, the under secretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence (and a household name in Iran), will burrow away in search of actionable U.S. sanctions against the Iranian regime.
The sanctions will feel cathartic, satisfy the have-to-do-something itch in the Congress, and change nothing. I’m just about resigned to that. But there is a smarter approach to Iran: Instead of constraining trade, throw it open.
On Dec. 15, Richard R. Verma, an assistant secretary for legislative affairs at the State Department, wrote to Carl Levin, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, informing him that the State Department had asked the Treasury to waive certain sanctions on Iran relating to the export of technology. Yes, waive — not tighten. (How much have you read about that?)
Verma wrote: “The Department of State is recommending that the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (O.F.A.C.) issue a general license that would authorize downloads of free mass-market software by companies such as Microsoft and Google to Iran necessary for the exchange of personal communications and/or sharing of information over the Internet such as instant messaging, chat and e-mail, and social networking.”
Now that’s smart! There’s a way to bolster the remarkable, still unbowed opposition movement in Iran as well as weaken the Revolutionary Guards’ stranglehold on society and the economy. And what has O.F.A.C. done about this request in the past two months?
Nothing.
No license has been issued. It’s still illegal for Microsoft to offer MSN Messenger in Iran. Instead, earlier this month, Treasury sanctioned four Guards companies — a meaningless gesture. Treasury has things upside down.
“With respect to Iran, human rights and free speech efforts have been made illegal under federal law!” said Austin Heap, a brilliant “techie” working for an organization that’s been trying to get technology designed to bypass government filters and other censorship into Iran, but has been frustrated by sanctions that make that illegal. “Sanctions are deterring people from doing things to help.”
That’s right. With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts.
Heap works with Babak Siavoshy, 27, at the Censorship Research Center (C.R.C.), whose engineers have developed software called “Haystack” that makes it near impossible for censors to detect what Internet users are doing.
“Double-click on Haystack and you browse the Internet anonymously and safely,” Siavoshy said. “It’s encrypted at such a level it would take thousands of years to figure out what you’re saying. It’s a potent open-society tool. It’s just a matter of getting it to Iran — and that’s still illegal.”
The C.R.C. has applied for a license from O.F.A.C. to distribute in Iran. Without pro-bono lawyers, it would have given up long ago. They’ve had to draft hundreds of pages of applications to Treasury.
My understanding is the license may soon be approved. Treasury insists it's now sitting at State. My urgent message to the Obama administration is: Hurry up with this license and the general one for mass market software!
Iranians are resourceful. On thumb drives, SIM cards, encrypted photo files and the like, they’d get Haystack software into the country. The United States is shooting itself in the foot by making this illegal. Hillary Clinton’s speech on the importance of an open Internet was good, but right now it’s just a speech. Don’t shut down on Iran; open up to its promise. Sanctions are a feel-good impasse.
“Tear down this wall!” was a 20th-century cry. It has given way to the 21st century’s “Tear down this firewall!” That, not sanctions, is what the I.R.G.C. fears most; and that, not sanctions, should be Obama’s priority.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Brutal Attack to University of Tehran Dorms by the Riot Police and Basij Militias
University of Tehran under Attack
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
22 Bahman_11 February 2010_Vidoe3_Karubi
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
22 Bahman_11 February 2010_Updates 2
There are reports of military mobilization at Enghelab Avenue. It seems that some allies have been barricaded from the night of 22 Bahman.
Also there are reports of military heavy artillery movements towards IRIB headquarters in northern Tehran. IRIB is the Iranian National TV and Radio.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
22 Bahman_11 February 2010_Updates 1
Here what we know so far:
The opposition movement leaders Mir Hossien Mousavi and Mahdi Karubi have invited the Iranian people to participate in the rallies in support of the Green Movement.
Even though it is not obvious what the government will do with the massive opposition crowd, but speculations from some sources such as sohrabestann
suggest that Sepah will try to barricade the main streets towards Azadi square to prevent the Greens come close to the official ceremony.
On the other hand there is a massive campaign on the Internet, and people have already began the discussion of a counter attack to Sepah's decision.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Iran’s Subsidies Reform Program: Hopes and Fears
In a few weeks the Iranian government will probably launch a long waiting economic plan according which most of the subsidies that are paid by the Iranian government in all the sectors of the economy will be lifted. Instead the government has planned to redistribute the money that is generated along the way to two thirds of the Iranian population who have monthly income below $130 per month.
While by many observers, this is a vital step towards more stable and prosperous economy, it might be accompanied by a disaster for the Iranian economy and the Iranian people.
Here is the problem: Since last year, Iranian economy has entered a recession (rokud) era similar to other parts of the world. But for two reasons the recession in Iran was worse than many other places.
- First, the Iranian economy has already suffered from new waves of heavy sanctions started in 2005.
- Second, Ahmadinejad's poor policy towards importing goods and food has made many Iranian domestic producers finding themselves at the edge.
Now as it has been argued, the sudden price increases in different sectors of the economy will cause two things at the same time.
- First, it causes Iranian producers great deal of harm to catch up with higher costs which may cause reduction in the Iranian domestic production. This reduction will eventually contribute to the recession that Iran is already in.
- Second, the increase in the prices will cause huge inflation (tavarom) for at least a few months.
RECCESION and INFLATION
at the same time is one of the worst things that might happen to an economy. This is called STAGFLATION which you could read more about that here.
From last year's presidential campaign the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and also Dr. Ali Reza Beheshti, Mousavi's consultant who is now in prison, have warned the Iranian government that the reform in the subsidies' system (Hadafmand Kardane Yaraneha), will cause "Bread-Protest" (Shuresh Nan).
The reason that Bread-Protest might happen is not just because of the stagflation situation that the Iranian government might face. It is because the Iranian government has planned to redistribute the money that is generated by this program to some groups of people. This redistribution of cash money will reinforce the stagflation through higher inflation (tavorm).
In conclusion, a sudden increase in the prices is probably a very bad idea which may harm the Iranian people.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Iran's 22 Bahman (Feb 11 2010)_Vidoe
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Why Killing Prof. Alimohammadi, the Iranian Physicist?
First, without any delay, the Iranian officials insisted that he was killed by the Foreign Security agencies. Even the parliament speaker Ali Larjiani went further and announced that Iran was aware of possible attacks before hand.
Second, even though he was not a nuclear scientist, the Iranian official media and other officials such as Ali Larijani insisted that he was indeed a nuclear scientist and his death was a total loss for the country.
Third, Iranian oppositions websites have shown documents of Prof. Alimohammadi’s support for the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Also his students have publicly announced that he was not in support of the recent repression in Iran. But there were several interviews by the officials such Iran’s ministry of higher education deputy of research that the professor was “enghelabi” and “velai” meaning that he was in support of Ayatoallah Ali Khamenie the Supreme Leader.
Based on the lies that the Iranian officials have consistently said so far, the following theory explains why he was chosen to be killed. And why it is highly possible that the Iranian government is behind this terror:
1- The goal of the killing the professor was to terrorize the Iranian people. And to make a point that the current situation in Iran will be resulted with terrors such this incident if the Iranian people insist on their protests after the disputed election of June 12, 2009.
2- Why him? Because he was green or partly green. And because of that his blood was halal for them. It means that he was considered a “mohareb” for the Iranian government. Mohareb means the enemy of God.
3- 3- He was a Physicist, and they could argue that he was a nuclear Physicist. This way they could show his death as a total loss without losing any nuclear scientist.
His tragic death was a total loss for the University of Tehran and also for the Iranian people. But unfortunately, the way that the Iranian officials reacted to his death made the government as the suspect number one.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
A Response from the Supreme Leader to Mousavi’s 5-Step Solution Proposal
One day after Iran's opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi's 5-step proposal to solve the current crisis in Iran, Iranian Student News Agency, published an interview with former political prisoner and a reformist activist Mohammd Atrianfar on January 3rd, 2010. In this interview after reviewing the events following the disputed June 2009 election, he has proposed a 9-step solution. It seems that this is an indirect response from Iran's Supreme Leader to Mr. Mousavi's proposal because of the following reasons:
- Mr. Atrianfar in prison and in the show trial in August 2009, refuted many of his beliefs about the election in particular and about the reformist movement in Iran in general. Many still believe that he has been forced to say those things in prison.
- After his release two months ago, he was silent without even one interview.
- In his today's interview he has used a particular tone and language very similar to Supreme Leader's way of speaking about the event after June disputed election. As two examples, he has mentioned two expressions of "knowing the enemy" and "the highest crime is to doubt about the election". These two expressions have been repeatedly used by the Supreme Leader before.
- His proposal just asks the opposition leader to retreat, and it only accepts the government fault in Kahrizak prison. Therefore, there is nothing about the election, political prisoners, freedom of speech especially by the freedom press asked by Mr. Mousavi in his proposal
This interview besides harsh responses of the other conservatives in the government again Mr. Mousavi's proposal have made it clear that Iran's current crisis has passed the point of finding an ordinary political solution. The only solution that is left is to remove Ayatollah Ali Khamenie from his Supreme Leadership. He has shown nothing expect an extreme brutality towards opposition movement in Iran. And there is a fear that the crisis reaches an internal war by February 11th, 2010, the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Friday, January 1, 2010
Is there any Political Solution for Iran’s Crisis?
On January 1st, 2010, Iran's opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi issued his 17th statement. In this new statement, while he is condemning the Iranian government for its brutal suppression of the peaceful rally on Ashura December 27, 2009, he has also proposed a 5-step road map to bring the deep and wide crisis to a solution.
Among Farsi language bloggers and websites, there is a general consensus that Mousavi's proposal is a step back in the demand of the opposition movement in having a new election. On the other hand, it seems that Mr. Mousavi has deliberately tried to leave some doors open for some moderate conservatives in the government to try to find some common grounds between the demands of the protesters and what the government can do to meet these demands.
Even though the bloody suppression of Ashura and the government's arrests after that day have led many observers to believe that there is no other solution except the replacing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie, still one should remember that this solution will probably costs lives of many Iranians.
For some softer solutions such the ones that Mousavi has proposed, it is important to note that there is very limited time left.
Iran will have its 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb 11th, 2010. And the new campaign has already started for another massive turn out by the protesters. Since the government has shown no tolerance for such gatherings, it is very likely that the turn out will end up with bloody confrontation between the security forces and people.
Among the countries who said something after the Ashura event in Iran, France and Russia have suggested attempts for a political solution for this crisis. If they are really serious about this matter, now it is time to use some leverages on the Iranian government before it is too late. United Nations and countries like Japan, China, Russia, Germany and France might still have some chances to send delegations to Tehran to prevent a disaster.
Iranian people and the Iranian government have never embarrassed a foreign intervene in Iran's internal matter. On the other hand, Iran has never been so close to an internal war or conflict like now.