Is there any Political Solution for Iran’s Crisis?

On January 1^st, 2010, Iran's opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi issued his 17^th statement. In this new statement, while he is condemning the Iranian government for its brutal suppression of the peaceful rally on Ashura December 27, 2009, he has also proposed a 5-step road map to bring the deep and wide crisis to a solution.

Among Farsi language bloggers and websites, there is a general consensus that Mousavi's proposal is a step back in the demand of the opposition movement in having a new election. On the other hand, it seems that Mr. Mousavi has deliberately tried to leave some doors open for some moderate conservatives in the government to try to find some common grounds between the demands of the protesters and what the government can do to meet these demands.

Even though the bloody suppression of Ashura and the government's arrests after that day have led many observers to believe that there is no other solution except the replacing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenie, still one should remember that this solution will probably costs lives of many Iranians.

For some softer solutions such the ones that Mousavi has proposed, it is important to note that there is very limited time left.

Iran will have its 31^st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb 11^th, 2010. And the new campaign has already started for another massive turn out by the protesters. Since the government has shown no tolerance for such gatherings, it is very likely that the turn out will end up with bloody confrontation between the security forces and people.

Among the countries who said something after the Ashura event in Iran, France and Russia have suggested attempts for a political solution for this crisis. If they are really serious about this matter, now it is time to use some leverages on the Iranian government before it is too late. United Nations and countries like Japan, China, Russia, Germany and France might still have some chances to send delegations to Tehran to prevent a disaster.

Iranian people and the Iranian government have never embarrassed a foreign intervene in Iran's internal matter. On the other hand, Iran has never been so close to an internal war or conflict like now.